"This presentation will describe how climate models work and what they predict. A basic definition of climate is presented to define the problem, and the basic problem of changing climates (natural and human caused) will be discussed. The scientific principles of climate models come from basic physical laws, discovered by people like Newton, Carnot and Maxwell from the 17th-19th century. The basic ideas for representing these laws in a computer involve representing these physical laws and constraints. Difficulties arise from small scale processes that cannot be fully described. Climate models are very similar to weather forecast models, but are applied differently. Climate models are validated and checked in the same way that weather forecast models are, and why and where we should and should not trust climate models will be discussed. Finally, some of the predictions of current climate models for the future will be presented, with some of the key potential impacts discussed. Climate change is a fundamental challenge not just to physical science, but to how our political and economic systems are designed, and this is what makes policy action difficult. The talk will summarize with a hopeful message that while there is a chance that catastrophic climate change may occur, it can likely be avoided with technology that exists today."
Andrew Gettelman is a Scientist III with a Joint Appointment in the Climate and Global Dynamics (CGD) and Atmospheric Chemistry Division (ACD). Andrew received his doctorate in Atmospheric Sciences and a certificate in Environmental Management from the University of Washington, Seattle and his Bachelor of Science in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Princeton University. His research interests include: defining transport and chemistry in the tropical tropopause layer, stratosphere troposphere exchange,impacts of commercial aviation on atmospheric chemistry and climate,understanding and modeling clouds and ice microphysics and the interactions of clouds and aerosols.
Andrew works extensively with satellite and in-situ observations. He is also a core developer of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and has recently lead development of microphysics and aerosol packages for the advanced physics version of the model. Andrew helped organize and teach the NCAR tutorial on climate modeling. Andrew has contributed extensively to models and assessments for climate and ozone depletion and is co-coordinator of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project, the coordinating project for model simulations in support of the WMO assessments of ozone depletion.
Dernière mise à jour : 19/04/2012